Sci&Tech History

How can someone became an idol? Or how can we know that a song will became a hit song? The answer is almost impossible, although there are some patterns which occur on an idol, and hit songs. In his research with Hasker, Duncan Watts recommend five strategies:

1. Increase the number of bets, and decrease their size.
2. Focus on detection, measurement, and feedback.
3. Follow through with flexible marketing budgets.
4. Exploit naturally emerging social influence.
5. Build flexibility into supply chains and contracts.

The strategies above help us to decrease the unpredictable space which may occur. For example, if we play poker, we can count our probability to get a pair, full house, or even flush, but what is important for the gamblers is not the number but the 0/1 option, win or lose. By increasing the number of bet, our chance to win will be increase, but as a consequence we have to put a small nominal for each bet. The next step is to identify our field, back to the example before, the more we know our rival habbit, the more we have the chance to win. In a bigger scale, our achievement to promote a new product and be accepted by other people depends on how we anticipate emerging social influence. By the end, the acceptance in a loader area will influence the way we life. If it pass the crittical mass, than the new product will survive, but if it doesn’t than it will be over.

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