You're here: My Science Blogging » Discovery » Article: The New Report on Tropical Storms
Yessi Pratiwi — August 5, 2007 / 5:58 pm
According to a new analysis of 20th century records, climate change has triggered three major shifts in the number of tropical storms that rise up in the North Atlantic. The first change came in 1905, starting a 25-year period with an average of 6.0 tropical storms or hurricanes per year. In 1931, the number jumped to 9.4 per year, and stayed at that level until 1994. The last big shift came in 1995, starting a period through to 2005 with an average of 14.8 storms per year.
The proportion of storms that go on to become major hurricanes does vary cyclically, and has shown no marked trend over the past century. The bad news, says Holland, is that this cycle is now driving an increase in the proportion of major hurricanes at the same time as the numbers of storms is rising due to global warming.
Some earlier studies had found that storm counts rose and fell periodically, with 30 to 40 quiet years followed by 30 to 40 busy years, but no long-term change. There is a small periodic variation in North Atlantic sea-surface temperature, but says it is much smaller than the long-term increase caused by greenhouse warming.
Journal reference: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A (DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083).
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