You're here: My Science Blogging » Astronomy » Article: NASA’s Update: Mars Collision Effectively Ruled Out
dhani — January 12, 2008 / 3:54 pm
Since last discovery on this month’s Mars asteroid impact, numerous tracking measurements from four different observatories has been received. Unfortunately (or fortunately to Mars), new data have led to a significant reduction in the position uncertainties during the asteroid’s close approach to Mars on Jan. 30, 2008. As a result, the impact probability has dropped dramatically, to approximately 0.01% or 1 in 10,000 odds, effectively ruling out the possible collision with Mars.
The best estimate now is that the asteroid, known as 2007 WD5, will pass about 26,000 km from the planet’s center (about 7 Mars radii from the surface) at around 12:00 UTC (4:00 am PST) on Jan. 30th. With 99.7% confidence, the pass should be no closer than 4000 km from the surface.
As known before, asteroid 2007 WD5 right now is on its way to Mars’ orbit at a speed of about 27,900 miles per hour. Because of current uncertainties about the asteroid’s exact orbit, the scientist suppose that there is a 1-in-75 chance of 2007 WD5 impacting Mars. Yet, latest observation shows that the probability has changed rapidly, until ends with this result.
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